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Monetary

The Macroeconomic Outlook Is Unfavorable For US Industrials
The performance of the Industrials sector tends to lag the business cycle, as companies invest in capex on the heels of economic expansion. But demand is not entirely cyclical, as the need to replace obsolete or aging equipment or machines is relatively…
Daily Insights
Are Inflationary Pressures Picking Up In Canada?
Canadian government bond yields jumped on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield rising by nearly 14 basis points. While most other major DM government bonds also sold off, the move in Canadian yields was relatively more pronounced. Both global and domestic forces…
Daily Insights
Rate Cut Expectations Continue To Bolster German Investor Morale
Results of the ZEW survey sent a slightly positive signal on German investor sentiment. The economic expectations indicator rose to an 11-month high in January – beating consensus estimates of a decline. This increased optimism about the outlook reflects an…
Daily Insights
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Industrials: Revisiting The Trifecta

The US manufacturing renaissance, spurred on by reshoring, automation, and government spending, is running its course but progress has slowed on the back of tight monetary conditions and the manufacturing recession. The deceleration of these positive trends weighs on the outlook for the Capital Goods industry group, impeding its performance over the short term. However, we reiterate that positive long-term trends for the industry remain intact. We downgrade Capital Goods to a tactical underweight. It remains a strategic overweight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
Economic Uncertainty Is Top Concern Among Canadian Businesses
Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator increased slightly in Q4, suggesting that sentiment stabilized at the end of 2023. In particular, easing inflationary pressures amid weaker demand and greater competition drove the 0.3-point uptick. Notably,…
Daily Insights
PBoC Unexpectedly Holds Medium-Term Rate Steady
China’s central bank unexpectedly held the medium-term policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on Monday, surprising expectations of a 10 basis point cut. Given that deflationary forces dominate China’s economy, the decision to stand pat underscores that policymakers…
Daily Insights
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Inflation, Interest Rates And Currencies: What Matters Today For Investors?

In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US Headline CPI Inflation Exceeds Expectations
US CPI inflation for December came in slightly hotter than anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.1% to 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and rose from 3.1% to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Both the monthly and yearly changes in headline…
Daily Insights
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Rate Cuts Are Still Coming

We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Falling Inflation Supports End Of RBA Hikes
Australian CPI inflation fell from 4.9% y/y to a 22-month low of 4.3% y/y in November – slightly below expectations of 4.4%. Underlying measures of core inflation also indicate that price pressures eased in November. The rate of growth in CPI excluding…
Daily Insights

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