The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75…
Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
Over the next few months, Japan’s new government will ease fiscal policy, which will improve domestic demand on the margin. Monetary policy may tighten further in the short run but not too much over the long run. The geopolitical…
EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodities. According to our Emerging Markets Strategy colleagues, such a decoupling is unusual. A potential Trump re-…
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the…
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis.…
A reaction to this morning’s employment report and a preview of the potential bond market implications of next week’s US election and FOMC meeting.
Can Powell achieve a soft landing? There are some indications he is doing it. We examine why our negative stance was wrong and analyze the four growth engines that kept recession at bay. Half of these forces remain while the other…
Speculators have supported copper prices as demand growth slowed below the pace of supply growth. Our Commodity and Energy Strategy colleagues believe this does not bode well for the metal. The copper market faces a situation…
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of a reacceleration to 0.3% month-on-month, and reached 2.7% year-over-year. The rest of the Personal Income and Outlays report showed solid…