Monetary

Bank Credit Analyst

Jonathan provides an update on Canada following strong performance from Canadian stocks last year. On a tactical basis, underweight Canada versus global ex-US on the expectation of tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico. Following a sell off, or if a trade war is avoided, investors should place Canadian stocks on upgrade watch with the goal of moving to a modest overweight versus global ex-US.

1 year ago

Economy Style: Growth / Value Canada

Essentials

The Fed Enters Wait-And-See Mode

The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold in its 4.25%-to-4.5% range, as expected. The main change in the statement was the removal of the reference to progress towards the Fed’s 2% target, leaving instead a simple mention that inflation “remains somewhat…

1 year ago

Fixed Income Economy Monetary Policy

Essentials

Bank of Canada: Stuck The Landing, Now Weighing Impacts Of Trade War

The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 3% as expected, and announced the end of quantitative tightening. This sixth consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range. The BoC assessed the results…

1 year ago

Canada Economy Monetary Policy

FICC

Don’t Put The Monetary Cart Before The Fiscal Horse

Jay Powell didn’t say much at this afternoon’s FOMC press conference, and monetary policy will continue to take a back seat to fiscal for the next few months.

1 year ago

Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

Essentials

Global Headwinds Still Weighing On European Growth

The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component missed estimates and…

1 year ago

Euro Area Sentiment Global

Essentials

Are We Nearing CAD Capitulation?

Until recently, Canada had been flying under the radar, yet it presents an interesting macro case. The Bank of Canada hiked rates in lockstep with the Fed, but it began cutting earlier due to a more fragile Canadian economy. Domestic and international…

1 year ago

Canada Monetary Policy Canadian Dollar

Essentials

Canada: Cool CPI, Heated Tariffs Rhetoric

The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively. Inflation is not…

1 year ago

Canada Inflation Tariffs

Essentials

UK: Cooling Employment Will Contain Inflation

November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…

1 year ago

UK Labor Market Inflation

Essentials

Get Ready For Bessenomics

Our Emerging Markets strategists put together a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent on what economic policy would look like for the Trump 2.0 administration. Secretary Bessent is expected to implement…

1 year ago

Elections Economic Growth Monetary Policy

EssentialsCoreMacro

How Bessenomics Was Born

Special Report

There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have put the pieces of the puzzle together to help clients see the big picture. This report presents our take on a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Scott Bessent that led to the latter’s appointment as Treasury secretary.

1 year ago

US Dollar Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy

Monetary

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