A major divergence has emerged between the performance of the S&P500 and the US equal-weighted stock index. Even though the S&P500 index has been grinding higher, the US equal-weighted index has failed to rally. Such a…
In recent insights we have noted a recent deterioration in European sentiment indicators such as the ZEW and Sentix. Similarly, measures of manufacturing activity are deteriorating. The flash estimate of the HCOB Eurozone…
Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…
Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising…
The equity market is back to the 2019 level on an inflation-adjusted basis. However, it is still not cheap as it is not pricing in the possibility of a prolonged and deep earnings recession or a higher interest rates regime. Many…
The US economy will experience a period of benign disinflation over the next few quarters. Beyond this goldilocks period, either the economy will slip into a mild recession in 2024, or more ominously, a second wave of inflation will…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.
Our best calls of the year were long defensives over cyclicals, short Russia and emerging Europe, long aerospace/defense, short Greater China, and long Latin America. Our worst call of the year was long cyber security stocks.