The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and…

Central banker messaging after the latest rate hike announcements in the US, UK and Australia indicates a shift in focus from the pace of hikes to how high rates must rise to slow growth and bring down inflation. This represents the…

While there is much variability in company profitability, earnings contractions have commenced and appear to be broad-based. We expect earnings growth to deteriorate further into year-end. Companies are reporting concerns about the…

Special Report

Executive Summary Turkey is staring into an abyss: economic crisis that will morph into political crisis in the June 2023 election cycle. President Erdoğan will pursue populist economic policies and foreign policy adventurism to try…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Euro Bulls Are Evaporating  The euro is likely to undershoot in the near term, as the winter months approach and economic volatility in Europe…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week, the US Bond Strategy service is hosting its Quarterly Webcast (August 16 at 10:00 AM EDT, 15:00 PM BST, 16:00 PM CEST). In addition, we are sending this Quarterly Chartpack that provides a recap of our key…

Special Report

Executive Summary Iron Ore & Steel Prices: Facing Downward Pressure  Global iron ore and steel supply is likely to grow faster than demand over the next six months. As a result, the prices of both metals will likely fall…

S&P 500 Chart 1Macroeconomic Backdrop  Chart 2Profitability  Chart 3Valuations And Technicals  Chart 4Uses Of Cash  Cyclicals Vs Defensives Chart 5Macroeconomic Backdrop  Chart…

Special Report

Executive Summary Non-Commodity Enterprises: No Profit Expansion For 12 Years  The past decade has seen a deterioration in the financial performance metrics of industrial Chinese companies. Declining efficiency of…

Special Report

Executive Summary Rebounding Chinese Auto Sales  China’s stimulus for auto purchases and an easing global auto chip shortage will lead to about a 10% recovery in domestic auto sales in 2022H2 from a year ago. Next…