Manufacturing
According to the results of the latest German IFO survey, overall sentiment deteriorated slightly in June. The IFO Business Climate index declined from 89.3 in May to 88.6 in June, disappointing expectations of a modest amelioration to 89.6. The IFO…
Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?
Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish.
Preliminary PMI estimates suggest that US economic leadership remained intact in June, despite previous signs that it was passing the global growth baton to the rest of the world. US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs all surpassed expectations as…
The heart of the US manufacturing sector is still pulsing. Industrial production surpassed expectations in May, growing by 0.9% m/m after having stagnated in April. Notably, the pro-cyclical manufacturing production index rebounded from April’s surprise…
The ECB delivered its first rate cut in June, moderating the degree of restriction rather than pivoting outright to easy monetary policy settings. Indeed, the rate cut was accompanied by an upward revision of inflation and growth forecasts. Since then,…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions and they surprised to the upside in May. Notably, electronics exports, which are particularly sensitive to…
On Wednesday, the European Commission announced it would impose tariffs ranging between 17% and 38% on imports of Chinese EVs starting next month. These duties will be applied on top of existing 10% across-the-board tariffs on all Chinese EV imports, and…
The issue of "industrial overcapacity" in China may be a misconception. Overcapacity in the old-economy sectors has largely diminished, while China's dominance in the global green-energy market reflects its technological advancements and innovations.
Sweden is a small export-oriented economy and its high sensitivity to global trade makes it a good bellwether of global growth developments. The headwinds from high borrowing costs are relatively more pronounced in Sweden where a large share of households…