MBS

Some tentative signs of life in the global manufacturing data suggest that Treasury yields have some room to move higher in the near term.

The Fed is unlikely to derail the housing recovery.
In this report we detail our structurally bullish U.S. housing view and how to profit from it.

The current uptrend in Treasury yields will be cut short once the dollar appreciates in response to an increasingly hawkish Fed. Maintain benchmark duration and add a long 2/10 barbell, short 5yr bullet trade to profit from Fed hawkishness.

Fed policymakers will soon shift their focus toward the strong employment and inflation data and stress that further rate hikes this year are likely. This will stem the rally in risk assets and cap the upside in long-dated yields.

Spread product performance has been foreshadowing changes in market rate hike expectations since early last year, and the recent bout of weakness means it is probably time for the Fed to temper its hawkishness.