Highlights Chart 1Is Low Inflation Transitory?  Persistent /pə’sıst(ə)nt/ adj. If inflation runs persistently above or below 2 percent, then the Fed would be forced to adjust its policy stance to nudge it back towards…

Highlights Chart 1What’s The Downside?  How low can it go? This is the question most investors are asking these days about the 10-year Treasury yield. Our answer is that it can’t go much lower unless the U.S. economy falls…

Highlights Duration: With rate hikes more likely than cuts over the next 12 months, it makes sense to maintain below-benchmark duration in U.S. bond portfolios. However, timing the next up-move in Treasury yields is difficult. We…

Highlights Chart 1Track The CRB/Gold Ratio  Earlier this year the Fed signaled a dovish policy shift in response to slowing global growth and tighter financial conditions. In large part due to the Fed’s move, financial…

Highlights Chart 1Look For Rate Hikes In H2 2019  First things first: The Fed’s rate hike cycle is not over. Last week’s FOMC statement told us that the Fed will be “patient” and Chairman Powell cited…

Highlights Chart 1Checklist To Buy Credit  The sell-off in spread product continued through the holiday season, but with spreads now looking more attractive, it is time to consider increasing exposure to corporate credit. Much…

Highlights Chart 1Looking For Peak Credit Spreads    The sell-off in spread product continued through November, driven by that toxic combination of weakening global growth and tightening Fed policy. With spreads now looking…

Highlights Credit: Credit spreads are widening due to the combination of weakening global growth and perceptions of restrictive Fed policy. Investors should monitor the indicators of global growth and Fed policy outlined in this report…

Highlights Chart 12015 Repeat?    Credit spreads widened as Treasury yields rose in October, bringing to mind the experience of 2015 when tight monetary policy and flagging global growth combined to cause a large drawdown…

Highlights Chart 1Second Half Rebound  The leveling-off of bullish sentiment toward the dollar and the perception of fading political risk have caused spread product to rally hard since the end of June. Indeed, corporate bonds…