Labor Market

The next six-to-nine months hold a crucial test of whether the equity market will ratify the soft landing and the Biden administration or not. If so, then markets will rally on policy continuity and likely gridlock. If not, then markets will struggle until the election is over and again in 2025-26.

In this special report, we discuss whether the economic conditions necessary for a stronger yen (and higher JGB yields) will materialize over the next 12-to-18 months.

The next six-to-nine months hold a crucial test of whether the equity market will ratify the soft landing and the Biden administration or not. If so, then markets will rally on policy continuity and likely gridlock. If not, then markets will struggle until the election is over and again in 2025-26.

In this special report, we discuss whether the economic conditions necessary for a stronger yen (and higher JGB yields) will materialize over the next 12-to-18 months.

Inspired by a client’s questions, we examine the rationale behind the implementation of the trailing stop governing our near-term asset allocation recommendations.

Investors should think probabilistically about the economy and financial markets. In the face of non-linear effects, the range of possible outcomes can be very large. A systematic application of Bayes’ rule can help improve decision-making.