Labor Market
US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy succumbs to recession. Investors should increasingly favor bonds over stocks.
FOMC Minutes: Most Still See Upside Risks To Inflation…
US Small Business Sentiment Deteriorates Again In September…
NY Fed: Near-Term Consumer Inflation Expectations Inch Higher…
Blowout US Job Gains…
An update to our US bond strategy following this morning’s employment report.
Introducing A New Real-Time US Recession Indicator…
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise In August…
The RBA: A Wait-And-See Strategy…
The Signal From The US Inflation Surprise Index…