Chinese economic data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. GDP expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q3 – beating expectations of a 4.5% y/y rise. On a quarterly basis, economic activity accelerated from 0.5% q/q to 1.3% q/q –…
The US retail sales report delivered a sanguine update on US consumption. Overall spending increased by 0.7% m/m in September – above expectations of a 0.3% m/m rise and following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m in August. The…
More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that has preceded several turning-points in the last few years. This…
As expected, the UK economy bounced back in August with GDP expanding by 0.2% m/m following a 0.6% m/m decline in July. Yet to the extent that this improvement largely reflects a rebound after strikes weighed down on activity in…
The US CPI report shows inflation was higher than anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m, it is above expectations of 0.3% m/m. The annual rate of change remains at 3.7% y/y…
US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy…
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and…
Results of the New York Fed’s survey show American consumers’ near-term inflation outlook ticked up in September. Respondents’ one-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.6% to 3.7%, and the three-year…
US small business optimism deteriorated for the second consecutive month in September. The NFIB index weakened by 0.5 points to 90.8, slightly below expectations of a more muted decline to 91.0. The latest move brings the index…