According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service investors should remain long NOK/SEK. The Norges Bank kept policy on hold last week, but the bullish case for the NOK (albeit over the short term) remains in…
The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 delivered a positive signal that the disinflation process is intact. The ECI’s slowdown from 1.1% q/q to 0.9% q/q came in softer than anticipations of 1.0% q/q. This marks the slowest…
We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two…
The December JOLTS survey delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday. Job openings rose from an upwardly revised 8.93 million in November to a three month high of 9.03 million in December, beating expectations of 8.75 million. In…
Results of regional Fed surveys suggest that the US manufacturing sector is starting the year on a weak footing. Monday’s report from the Dallas Fed– the last to release its results for January – showed the…
Since the low of 27 October last year, MSCI US has rallied by 19.1% and this rally has been firmly driven by cyclical sectors. Performance-wise Information Technology (IT), Communication Services and Financials and Real Estate…
According to BCA Research’s The Bank Credit Analyst service, there are two important flaws in the market’s “Goldilocks” narrative. First, investors are assuming inflation will fully return to target…
With the latest PCE release confirming that the disinflation process is intact (see The Numbers), a key question facing investors is around the timing of the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts. Indeed, the US inflation surprise index…
Over the past few months, falling inflation has provided a boost to real wages in the Euro Area which returned to growth in 2023Q3 after 9 consecutive quarters of decline. This dynamic in turn improved the purchasing power of…
Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays report for December delivered a positive update on the US economy. On the growth side, the data confirm the signal from the Q4 GDP release that consumer spending continues to power…