The 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate has been a reliable US recession indicator. Indeed, there has never been a case in the post-war era when it has increased by more than a third of a percentage point from its…
Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.
On the surface, the Tuesday release of the NFIB Small Business Survey indicated resilience among small businesses. The headline index appreciated to 89.7 from 88.5, upending expectations of a moderation to 88.2. However,…
We marked the first X on our Equity Downgrade Checklist and the latest JOLTS, Employment Situation and SLOOS releases brought us closer to ticking some others. We remain tactically neutral on equities but expect that we will…
German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?
The Canadian economy added 90.4 thousand jobs in April, up from a new loss of 2.2 thousand jobs in March. The April reading beat expectations of a more moderate increase of 20 thousand. The services sector entirely explains April…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, it is possible that there will be a jobs recession without an economic recession in the US, as happened in 2001. The Fed is “trying to cool demand and work with…
US initial jobless claims increased from 209 thousand last week to 231 thousand, surpassing expectations of 212 thousand. Moreover, continuing claims also surprised to the upside, increasing from 1.768 million to 1.785 million…
An update to our views on UK rates and currency following today’s Bank of England meeting.