Labor Market
After this morning’s jobless claims number, we have now seen enough deterioration in our preferred labor market indicators to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark”.
Euro Area Earnings Likely To Disappoint By A Wide Margin…
UK Services Inflation Still Too High For BoE's Comfort…
Aggregate US Economic Data Point To Cooling Activity…
As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?
Smaller LEI Contraction Doesn't Eliminate US Recession Risk…
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.
A Warning Sign From US Jobless Claims…
The Beige Book Reinforces That US Activity Is Decelerating…