Labor Market

Investors should de-risk tactically in expectation of shocks and surprises ahead of the US election and an uncertain aftermath. Democratic victory with a gridlocked Congress is our base case but would bring minor tax hikes and nuclear brinksmanship with Russia. A Republican single-party sweep offers huge tax cuts but also a global trade war. Recession looms regardless.

This Special Report examines the post-pandemic evolution of consumption growth, relative equity sector and subindustry performance and recent commentary from consumer-facing companies to assess the likelihood that softer spending among lower-income households will spread to middle- and upper-income households.

The US suffers from enough imbalances to produce a mild recession. Unfortunately, such a recession could lead to a significant bear market in stocks, just as it did during the very mild 2001 recession.

The ECB will cut rates once more this year; however, markets underprice how far it will ease next year.

Some thoughts on this morning’s US claims report and a preview of next week’s FOMC meeting.