Labor Market

In the absence of official government data, investors are turning to alternative sources to gauge the direction of the US economy. Our analysis of this data suggests that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace over the past two months. If the Supreme Court were to strike down the tariffs, this would reduce the near-term odds of a recession while raising the odds of overheating.

The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.