This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
September nonfarm payrolls grew by 254 thousand, from 155 thousand in August, handily exceeding expectations of 150 thousand. Pro-cyclical manufacturing jobs declined by a lower-than-anticipated 7 thousand, while leisure and…
The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our…
We’ve highlighted over the past week that while Beijing’s stimulus package remains unlikely to trigger a meaningful business cycle revival, it nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline leading to a sentiment-…
The ISM services PMI grew at an accelerating pace in September, from 51.5 to 54.9, handily exceeding expectations, and extending a three-month expansion streak. Growth was broad-based with an increasing number of industries (…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the consensus expectation of a soft landing is wishful thinking. Many investors have pointed to the mid-1990s as an example of when Fed easing paved…
The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI improved from 49.5 to 50.4 in September, breaking a 17-month contraction streak. It corroborated solid broad-based retail sales growth in July and August. Confidence in the outlook also…
October seasonality tends to be negative for stocks in an election year. That is the only thing that has stayed our hand from shifting out of our tactical underweight on US equities, initiated – poorly – in July.
But the big macro…
The ISM manufacturing PMI remained constant in September at 47.2, against expectations of a slower pace of decline and extending a six-month contraction streak. Measures of production and domestic demand decelerated at a…
US job openings grew by a larger-than-expected 8.04 million jobs in August from 7.71 million. July’s openings were also revised 38 thousand higher. However, despite the upside surprise, the August hires rate fell to 3.3…