Highlights Recent U.S. economic data have surprised to the upside, raising the odds of a December rate hike. U.S. GDP growth is likely to accelerate further in 2017 on the back of stronger business capex, a turn in the inventory cycle…
Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving…
When earnings growth negatively diverges from GDP growth, the gap rarely closes via a rebound in profit growth. The most notable feature of prior episodes is weak corporate pricing power and the current period is no different; an…
Our Fourth Quarter Strategy Outlook presents the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.
The August payrolls report did not change our view that a Fed rate hike is likely in December, but not before that.
Given the rising odds of another Fed move before year-end, and the uncertainty that additional easing can be delivered in Europe and Japan, we re-iterate our tactical call to maintain a below-benchmark duration stance.
Investors are being forced into riskier asset classes by the TINA effect, but the gaping macro disequilibria makes it difficult for investors to see how we move back to equilibrium in a benign way. Monetary policy on its own is…
Last week's blowout jobs report had the beautiful combination of strong growth and flat/rising underemployment rates. This supports our expectation of a Fed hike in December rather than one in September.Accelerating growth when the…