Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get…

Special Report

Highlights The economy is near full employment, which means that a more fertile cyclical environment for wage hikes is getting underway. However, the aging of the U.S. workforce is exerting powerful downward pressure on overall wage…

Special Report

Highlight Growth perked up in the major economies in October, and the manufacturing recession appears to have passed without event. The October employment report testified to the underlying health of the U.S. economy and clears the…

Dear Client, In addition to this week's regular Weekly Report, you should have also received a Client Note written by my colleague Marko Papic discussing the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Marko argues that the election is now…

Highlights The appearance of two virtuous circles will cause the real broad trade-weighted dollar to strengthen by 10% over the next 12 months. The Fed's efforts to run a "high pressure" economy will create a self-…

Highlights ECB Monetary Policy: Euro Area inflation will likely remain below the European Central Bank (ECB) 2% target for the next few years due to persistent excess capacity in Europe. The ECB will signal this at the December…

Highlights Duration: Treasury yields will continue to rise as a December Fed rate hike is priced in. A surge in bullish dollar sentiment between now and December would cause us to back away from our below-benchmark duration stance.…

Highlights The U.S. is not yet a "high-pressure" economy, but slack is dissipating. U.S. growth, while not torrid, will remain high enough to push interest rates higher. The euro area continues to exhibit tepid domestic…

Highlights Our protector portfolio is a combination of assets that have a low or negative correlation with equities that give investors some downside protection. Replacing cash and/or Treasuries with our protector portfolio in 60-30-…

Highlights Global liquidity conditions are set to tighten in the months ahead. This could add some fire to a dollar rally, especially against EM and commodity currencies. The GBP has become the new anti-dollar, reflected by its…