Special Report

Dear Client, In addition to an abbreviated Weekly Report that you will receive later tonight, I am sending you this Special Report written by my colleague Mark McClellan of our monthly Bank Credit Analyst publication. Following up on…

Special Report

The fundamental drivers of the low rate world are considered by many to be structural, and thus likely to keep global equilibrium bond yields quite depressed by historical standards for years to come. However, some of the factors…

Highlights The earnings rebound underway in Corporate America is being driven by more than just higher oil prices. S&P 500 profit margins have stabilized recently, but remain in secular decline. We remain bullish on the dollar…

Special Report

Feature The on-going Second Machine Age - the ushering in of Artificial Intelligence (AI) - is obsoleting human jobs at an alarming pace. But an analysis of the data reveals an interesting pattern. Jobs typically done by men have…

Highlights Duration & Fed Policy: The longer risk assets can withstand rising rates, the higher will be the ultimate resting place for Treasury yields. Maintain below-benchmark duration on a 6-12 month horizon and add a short fed…

Highlights Despite our tactical bullish stance, the cyclical outlook remains firmly negative for the yen, with a 12-month target for USD/JPY above 120. The BoJ is currently committed to an inflation overshoot, with this solid…

Highlights Price inflation is paradoxically deflationary for European consumers, because there is no feedthrough from price inflation to wage inflation. Whenever price inflation has risen towards the ECB's highly-misguided 2%…

Special Report

Highlights In this report, we outline our tactical, cyclical and long term views on French government bonds, linked to France's political situation, cyclical dynamics, and structural outlook. Tactical View: Marine Le Pen does not…

Highlights Signing executive orders and memoranda post-Inauguration is a common tactic for new presidents. Unfortunately for investors, political rhetoric has caused uncertainty to surge, while actions affecting profitability have been…

Feature The FX Market has a strange way of proving everyone wrong. Currently, we are finding ourselves uncomfortable with our cyclically bullish stance on the dollar as it has become a consensus view. A review of the rationale and…