Highlights The FOMC statement reaffirmed that the Fed remains in hiking mode. If the Fed keeps raising rates in line with the "dots," monetary policy will move into restrictive territory by early 2019. By then, the…
Dear Client, Along with this brief Weekly Report, we are sending you a Special Report written by my colleague Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of BCA's Geopolitical Strategy service. Marko argues that the U.S. is vulnerable to serious…
Highlights Will Trump's trade rhetoric damage the U.S. service sector's abilities to generate a trade surplus and create high-paying jobs? Our assessment of the latest Beige Book via the BCA Beige Book Monitor supports the Fed…
Highlights The global economy remains awash in massive amounts of oversupply, reflecting extraordinary levels of capex in emerging markets. This will weigh on global inflation. Thanks to a tighter labor market, the U.S. is likely to…
Highlights Markets have gone too far in pricing out the Republican's market-friendly policy agenda. The President desperately needs a win ahead of mid-term elections. A bill that at least cuts taxes should be forming by year end.…
Highlights On the European side, the key risk to our bullish DXY stance is that European growth is strong, the labor market seems to be tightening, and core CPI has perked up. These risks are real but mitigated by budding signs that…
Highlights The risk asset friendly outcomes in the French and South Korean elections are the latest examples of fading geopolitical risk, and we expect that to continue over the remainder of 2017. Although it has been well over a year…
Highlights The U.S. unemployment rate stands 0.1 points below the FOMC's year-end projection and 0.4 points below its estimate of NAIRU. If the unemployment rate keeps falling, it will have nowhere to go but up - and the U.S. has…
Highlights ECB policy is set to become less dovish relative to other central banks. Stay long the euro; stay underweight German bunds within a global bond portfolio; and overweight euro area Financials within a global Financials…
Highlights The Economic Surprise Index has declined and may continue to roll over until expectations wash out. But that shouldn't derail risk assets or the Fed. The GDP data is a mix of art and science. For investors focused on…