Highlights After the March FOMC Meeting, market pricing for short-term rates is largely consistent with the Fed's forecasts. For investors and the Fed, the health of the economy and earnings matter more than Trump's political…

Special Report

Dear Client, I am visiting clients in Asia this week and working on our Quarterly Strategy Outlook, which we will be publishing next week. As such, instead of our Weekly Report, we are sending you this Special Report written by my…

Special Report

Feature Switzerland is experiencing a meaningful economic rebound. The Swiss economy is enjoying real and nominal growth of 1% and 1.4%, respectively, and PMIs are hovering near eight-year highs. As a result, after hitting nadirs of -1…

Highlights Two big distortions in the euro area economy arose because Germany depressed its wages for a decade, and then Italy failed to fix its broken banks for a decade... ...but both distortions are now correcting. Long-term…

Highlights Consumer spending is well supported despite weak readings on household purchases in early 2018. The recent rollover in M&A activity does not signal a top in equity markets nor warns that a recession looms. Although the…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Synchronized global growth, a soft U.S. dollar, our resurgent Boom/Bust Indicator and avoidance of a Chinese economic hard landing, are all signaling that it still pays to overweight cyclicals at the…

Highlights Financial market volatility in general and FX market volatility in particular is set to increase because of the following three factors: Rising U.S. inflation will make the Federal Reserve increasingly hawkish, and the…

Highlights There are many things that central bankers know they don't know. "Known unknowns" include the outlook for growth (both actual and potential), NAIRU, the neutral rate of interest, and the true shape of the…

Highlights Bond Strategy: The investment backdrop is broadly evolving the way that we forecasted in our 2018 Outlook, thus we continue to maintain our core strategic recommendations. Maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration and…