Highlights Monetary Policy: Position for rate hikes of 25 bps per quarter for the next 6-12 months and watch nominal GDP growth, cyclical spending and the price of gold for signals about the position of the fed funds rate relative to…

Highlights As widely expected, the Fed raised the policy rate by 25bps last week. The central bank is also forecasting an additional rate hike for 2018, but one less for 2020. The labor market typically continues to improve after the…

Highlights The recent weakness in emerging markets (EM) has not yet altered the Fed's view of the U.S. economy. Capital spending in the U.S. remains upbeat despite a slowdown in economic momentum outside the country. May's…

Highlights The Swan Diagram depicts four different "zones of economic unhappiness," each one corresponding to a case where unemployment and inflation is either too high or too low, and the current account position is either…

Highlights The labor market continues to tighten and pressure the Fed. Tightening financial conditions suggest more muted returns for U.S. dollar assets and are associated with a peak in cyclical sectors. BCA's proprietary…

Highlights Tinbergen's rule says that the successful implementation of economic policy requires there to be at least as many "instruments" as "objectives." Policymakers today are increasingly discovering that…

Highlights BCA's call is that the robust labor market will boost wages and incomes, and insulate the consumer from rising energy costs and interest rates. Residential investment will add to GDP growth this year and support housing…

Highlights The U.S. labor market is now at full employment and the plethora of fiscal stimulus coming down the pike could cause the economy to overheat. If the recent rebound in the U.S. dollar reverses, this will only add to aggregate…

Highlights Does the 3% level on Treasuries matter to investors? The 2/10 yield curve is typically much steeper when global growth is strong and pro-growth policies are in place. The imperfect inter-relationship between labor market…

Dear Client, Alongside this week's report we are also sending you a fascinating short Special Report written by Jennifer Lacombe of our Global ETF Strategy sister service. The report, which demonstrates the use of ETF flows as a…