Highlights If the U.S. Treasury intervenes to push the greenback lower, it would only have a temporary impact. Ultimately, interventions work if they are matched with easy monetary policy. However, U.S. monetary policy will only be…

Special Report

Dear Client, This is the first of a two-part Special Report dealing with the question of whether a significant pickup in global inflation may be lurking around the corner. In this week's report, we look back at the causes of the…

Special Report

According to market lore, one should never say, "It's Different This Time". But every time is always different: there is a never a previous period that perfectly matches the current environment. That is why forecasting is so…

Highlights Paradox 1: U.S. growth will slow, and this will force the Fed to raise rates MORE quickly. Paradox 2: China will try to stimulate its economy, and this will HURT commodities and other risk assets. Paradox 3: Global…

Highlights Editor's Note: I am pleased to return to U.S. Investment Strategy (USIS). I worked with the service when I joined BCA in 2010, and previously led it from August 2013 through September 2014. Sara Porrello, who has been with…

Highlights Global Yields: Flattening government yield curves in the developed world have raised concerns about a potential future growth slowdown. Yet real policy rates will need to move into positive territory before monetary policy…

Highlights Subdued long-term inflation expectations and central bank bond purchases have suppressed the term premium. This is set to change, as quantitative easing turns into quantitative tightening and shrinking output gaps around…

Dear Client, Geopolitical analysis is a fundamental part of the investment process. My colleague, and BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist, Marko Papic will introduce a one-day specialized course - Geopolitics & Investing - to…

Highlights Macro Outlook: Global growth is decelerating and the composition of that growth is shifting back towards the United States. Policy backdrop: The specter of trade wars represents a real and immediate threat to risk assets.…

Highlights Wage inflation in the EU28 is running at exactly the same rate as in the U.S. In the euro area, it is only modestly lower. As the current business cycle completes, the euro area versus U.S. bond yield spread will narrow,…