Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Highlights Equities had a wild ride in October, ... : The S&P 500 has bounced smartly off of its October 29th lows, but the decline that preceded the bounce was unusually severe. ... that unsettled a lot of investors, and made us…
Special Report Highlights So What? Donald Trump's reelection depends on the timing of the next recession. Why? The midterm elections will not determine Trump's reelection chances. Rather, the timing of the next recession will. BCA's…
Special Report Highlights The End Of APP?: Economic growth in the euro area has lost momentum, but it is not clear that an extended period of below-trend growth is unfolding. With most measures of spare capacity showing a lack of it, the ECB must…
Highlights Did October's equity rout ... : Before bouncing back in its final two sessions, October was the S&P 500's 12th-worst month of the postwar era. ... represent a watershed for financial markets?: Shaken investors…
  The equity market of late has been highly sensitive to any signs that the U.S. has reached peak economic and profit growth for the cycle, especially given this year’s disappointing housing data. The drop in both the ISM…
Highlights Duration: Foreign economic growth continues to diverge negatively from growth in the United States. The resulting upward pressure on the U.S. dollar will eventually drag U.S. growth down, and could temporarily threaten the…
Special Report Highlights European and Japanese wages have firmed significantly, suggesting upside to inflation in these economies. However, the gain in European wages will soon reverse, as the slowdown in global trade percolates through the…
Highlights Macro outlook: Global growth will continue to decelerate into early next year on the back of brewing EM stresses and an underwhelming policy response from China. Equities: Stay neutral for now, while underweighting EM…
Highlights When projecting the future course of interest rates, the Fed is the best place to start: Although the Fed only expressly controls short rates, its influence is felt across all maturities. Until it inverts the yield curve,…
Special Report Highlights Globalization, technological progress, weak trade unions, high debt levels, and population aging are often cited as reasons for why inflation will remain dormant. None of these reasons are inherently deflationary, and in…