Labor Market
The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.
Fed Waits For Labor Break Before Easing…
JOLTS Weakness Reinforces Disinflation And Duration Bias…
US Consumer Confidence Beat Doesn’t Offset Cooling Labor Trend…
Tariffs, Input Costs, And The Shifting US Inflation Mix…
Investors should anticipate above average Treasury returns during the next 12 months, and curve steepeners will continue to profit.
Fed Under Fire: Inflation Expectations Starting to Drift…
Sentiment Ticks Up, But US Consumer Caution Persists…
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive.
Jay Powell won’t be removed as Fed Chair before the expiry of his term next May, but we will learn the identity of his replacement this year, setting up a potentially awkward “shadow Fed Chair” situation.