U.S. payrolls rebounded from February’s very weak number. For March, expectations stood at 177 thousand new jobs, however, 196 thousand positions were created. February was also upgraded from 20 thousand to 33…
Highlights Dovish Central Banks: Central bankers have successfully talked down bond yields, in an effort to prevent an even deeper pullback in global growth. Government bonds now look overvalued relative to likely outcomes on growth…
Highlights Every diversified currency portfolio should hold the yen as insurance against rising market volatility. However, for tactical investors, the latest dovish shift by global central banks almost guarantees the Bank of Japan…
Highlights Duration: With rate hikes more likely than cuts over the next 12 months, it makes sense to maintain below-benchmark duration in U.S. bond portfolios. However, timing the next up-move in Treasury yields is difficult. We…
The potential labor force is generally regarded to be the people aged 15 to 64. The growth trend in this age segment has slowed sharply in recent years in the major economies and is set to weaken further in the years ahead. The…
Nearly all future growth in global population will occur in the developing world, except China. On the positive side, a rapidly-growing young population creates the potential for strong economic growth – the opposite of the…
The above chart shows annual real GDP growth (the percentage change over four quarters) versus the change in the unemployment rate over twelve months for the major developed economies dating back to 1980. There is a reasonably…
As directed by the Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977, and subsequently adjusted by common understanding, the Fed has a dual mandate to promote price stability and full employment. In line with the price stability mandate, the…
In theory, the Fed’s response to inflation is straightforward; it acts to limit above-target inflation as runaway prices ultimately keep output below potential by undermining economic actors’ ability to plan…