Highlights Duration: We see current bond market behavior as very similar to mid-2016, when heightened political uncertainty obscured the economy’s true strength and kept bond yields lower for longer than was justified by the…
The labor market is so tight that it squeaks. The unemployment rate has fallen to a 49-year low; retiring baby boomers will cap the labor force participation rate around its current level; and discouraged workers and involuntary…
Highlights We were on the road last week, discussing our economic and market outlooks: We met with a range of Midwestern clients who focus primarily on the U.S. A majority of our meetings were with fixed-income teams. The Fed will…
By creating 263 thousand jobs in April, the U.S. bested expectations of nearly 190 thousand. Moreover, the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3.8%. The good news from the reports ends there. The fall in the unemployment rate…
Highlights The recent dovish shift in tone from central banks around the world is here to stay this year, providing support for global growth. As a result, stock prices will benefit from a combination of easy policy and rebounding…
Highlights 10-Year Yield: In this week’s report we run through different macro factors that could be used to create a macroeconomic model of the 10-year Treasury yield, and describe the current outlook for each one. On balance,…
The U.S. NFIB small business confidence survey rose marginally from 101.7 to 101.8, falling short of expectations of 102. However, there was an important nugget of information in this dataset. Plans to hire, net compensation, and…
Highlights We remain constructive on the U.S. economy, …: It was another uneven week, but conditions remain broadly favorable for the U.S., and the expansion is intact. … and things seem to be perking up in the rest of…