The September U.S. jobs report was mixed. According to the Establishments data, the U.S. created 136 thousand jobs last month, or nine thousand less than expected. However, net revisions for the past two months added 45…
The U.K. has created 4.2 million new jobs over the past decade, nudging the employment-to-population ratio to the highest level in almost 50 years. Positively, full-time job creation has outpaced part-time and female…
Highlights The U.K. economy has been holding up fairly well, despite the overhang of political uncertainty. However, even before the actual withdrawal of the U.K. from the E.U. has occurred, Brexit has left a lasting mark on the U.K.…
If expanding payrolls and increasing compensation can keep consumption growing at 2%, the probability of a U.S. recession, of an equity bear market and a new default cycle, is fairly slim. The second quarter monthly employment…
Following up from last week’s ISM-related analysis, we turn our attention to the labor market that is beginning to reveal some minor cracks. While the ISM debate has centered around the steep divergences between services…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Small cracks are forming in the labor market according to the ISM manufacturing, ISM services and NFIB surveys, and if the Fed goes ahead and cuts interest rates in half in the coming year as the bond…
Highlights The ECB loaded a bazooka, and core Eurozone yields rose: The ECB surprised dovishly last Thursday, and European bond yields duly fell … for an hour. Then they began to back up as fast as they fell, and when Friday…
The August nonfarm payrolls were soft. Job creation fell from 159 thousand to 130 thousand, well below expectations of 160 thousand. The revisions for the past two months came in at -20 thousand. This disappointment…