Highlights Duration: The coronavirus is still weighing on yields and could push them down further in the near-term. However, the history of past viral outbreaks suggests that yields will move sharply higher once the daily number of new…
Highlights Why did S&P 500 profit margins fall in 2019?: Compensation gains, trade tensions and spotty growth were the most likely culprits, though the absence of standardized disclosure hinders full attribution. Was it a one-off…
Highlights Provided that the coronavirus outbreak is contained, global growth should accelerate over the course of 2020. Stocks usually rise when the economy is strengthening. But could this time be different? We explore five…
The US labor market remains a source of good news for the US economy. In January, the US created 225 thousand jobs, well above expectations of 165 thousand. Moreover, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its annual revisions…
Relative to December, average hourly earnings growth is stabilizing, but it remains well below its October peak. This deceleration is a temporary phenomenon created by the global manufacturing slowdown. First, the business…
Highlights Global growth is poised to accelerate this year, although the spread of the coronavirus could dampen spending in the very short term. History suggests that the likelihood of a recession rises when unemployment falls to very…
In recent decades, economic concentration and the regulatory environment have given capital owners the upper hand in labor relations. However, the immediate future seems poised to favor labor, as the legal and regulatory climate…