The US labor market recovery has been losing steam, and the rising number of permanent job losses is concerning. Moreover, higher-wage workers have not seen any gain in employment since late May. A stagnation in job creation…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, we will be sending you a Special Report from my colleague Garry Evans, Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist. Garry will be discussing the social and industrial changes that will…
Highlights The use of physical distancing and face masks restricts any activity that requires the use of your mouth and nose in proximity to others. We estimate that this restriction could wipe out 10 percent of jobs. Hence, as…
Highlights We conservatively estimate lost output from shutdowns and social distancing will equal $10 trillion, and we expect the jobs market to be permanently scarred. Inflation, even at 2 percent, is a pipe dream, which leads to…
Highlights The relaxation of lockdown measures, along with mass protests over the past two weeks, have made a second wave of the pandemic more likely than not in many countries. Unlike during the first wave, most governments will not…
Highlights If policymakers can neutralize default pressures arising from the lockdowns, the lasting impacts of this recession may not be so bad: As Jay Powell put it on 60 Minutes several weeks ago, policymakers just have to keep…
Highlights Social distancing must persist to prevent dangerous super-spreading of COVID-19. The jobs recovery will be much weaker than the output recovery, because the sectors most hurt by social distancing have a very high labour…
Highlights This year’s NPC refrained from announcing a numeric economic growth target. However, the targeted employment growth will be a reliable indicator of the government’s pain threshold. The announced stimulus…
Highlights Economic conditions are quite bad, … : Stay-at-home orders have decimated economic activity, giving rise to massive layoffs. … but policy makers embarked on a mighty initial effort to limit the longer-run…