Japanese Yen

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

We look at the implications for FX from the slew of central bank meetings this week.

In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.

The market is excited by the idea that the Fed will cut rates early this year, even without a recession. But is that likely, with inflation still set to be around 2.8% mid-year?

A post-mortem of our trades for the year, and also comments on future yen and sterling moves from the recent BoJ meeting, and the UK inflation report.

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.