Japanese Yen

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

The Bank of Japan delivered a historic policy adjustment this week, ending both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control. In this Insight, BCA’s global fixed income and currency strategists discuss the immediate implications of the move for Japanese bond yields and the yen, and the potential for additional tightening actions.

This week, we review our currency positions, based on the latest data from G10 economies.

Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.

In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.

This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.