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Japan

BoJ Holds, Remains On Watch For Global Headwinds
The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.50%, but maintained a hawkish bias, making it the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures.  More rate increases are likely this year as…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Trump Slump To Get A Temporary Reprieve

The Trump slump is nearing a temporary reprieve, with a playable countertrend rally in stocks and a tactical rebound in the dollar. Go tactically long USD/SEK. For long-term investors though, the AI bubble still has a lot of air to come out.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Tokyo CPI Remains Hot
The February Tokyo CPI print came in slightly cooler than expected. Headline inflation moderated to 2.9% y/y from 3.4%, while “core core” was steady at 1.9%. The Tokyo CPI gives an advance reading on national price pressures, and the data suggests…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
‘Mini-Stagflation’ Will End With A Financial Shock

The US (and the UK) is staring down the barrel of a ‘mini-stagflation’ until a deflationary shock arrives to neutralise it. We describe a likely source for the deflationary shock and list three investment conclusions that are valid irrespective of how long it takes for the deflationary shock to arrive. Plus: RCI.B is deeply oversold and ripe for a rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Chinese Tech Stocks: Is The DeepSeek Hype Sustainable?
Our China strategists assessed the outlook for Chinese stocks in the aftermath of the DeepSeek hype. DeepSeek’s innovations will boost China’s productivity and technological advancement but are unlikely to create a strong competitive moat for large…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Counterpointwebcast
2025 Key Views: 1st Quarter Update
In this webcast, Dhaval will give an update on his key views for 2025. The discussion will include: Why the US is heading into ‘mini stagflation’. Why the BoJ must hike interest rates, and the global consequences. The outlook for global bond yields and the dollar. The latest advances to our complexity analysis and indicators. When the bull market will end.
Counterpoint Webcast
Japan: Strong Q4 GDP Points To Further BoJ Hikes
Preliminary estimates of Q4 real GDP growth in Japan was stronger than expected, rising to 2.8% q/q annualized from 1.7% in Q3. Domestic demand remained strong, and the GDP deflator increased to 2.8% y/y. Japan’s economy is running hot, sustaining price…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Tokyo CPI: Strong Price Pressures Remain
The January Tokyo CPI came in stronger than expected, with headline inflation accelerating to 3.4% y/y from 3.0%, and “core core” (ex. fresh food and energy) accelerating to 1.9% from 1.8%. The jobless rate also decreased 0.1% to 2.4% in…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
How Much Further Can The BoJ Raise Rates?

In today’s Strategy Insight, we discuss the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of Japan, following the 25-bps rate hike overnight, and what it means for JGBs and the yen.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper, Chester Ntonifor
BoJ Hikes, Signals More To Come
The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps as expected to 0.50%, or a 17-year high. The BoJ is currently the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures.  Additionally, the BoJ signaled a…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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