Japan
This week, we are sending a <i>Special Report</i> written by BCA's Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin, discussing the end of the 35-year global bond bull market. In addition, we are also sending you a joint <i>U.S. Bond Strategy/Global Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Report</i> which discusses the end of the secular bond bull market and the implications for global bond strategy.
This week, we are sending a <i>Special Report </i>written by BCA's Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin, discussing the end of the 35-year global bond bull market.
Using long-term real rates, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity still works for exchange rate determination. Currencies are also affected by the global risk appetite and commodity prices. Intermediate-term fundamentals for EUR/USD are pointing up, but the timing is not optimal to buy it yet. However, the long-term outlook for the euro remains poor. Currently, USD/JPY has room to rally in the short term. Long-term factors will also continue to weigh on the yen.
Over the past 12 months, the yen surged, powered by global deflationary fears. Japanese monetary conditions massively tightened, causing additional yen strength, creating a vicious circle. Policymakers will respond, but markets are likely to be disappointed. Nonetheless, global factors could temporarily move against the yen. Buy NOK/JPY and AUD/JPY. The BoE will move next month. The BoC will stand pat for the foreseeable future.
The perception that central banks have turned even more dovish has pushed down global bond yields, while also giving stocks a lift. Looking out, bond yields are likely to edge higher as investors begin to focus more on the outcome of easing measures: Higher inflation. As long as yields rise gingerly and in the context of firming economic growth, global equities will remain reasonably well supported. Equity investors should favor the euro area, Japan, and China.
Please see attached our <i>Third Quarter Strategy Outlook<i/> which discusses the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year.
Brexit is putting our bearish short-term dollar view in question as global policy uncertainty has surged. Yet, investors are displaying elevated signs of risk aversion but the global economy still looks fine. This dissonance is likely to end with investors increasing risk taking, a bearish development for the counter-cyclical dollar. Favor commodity currencies over European ones.
The model continues to keep its largest overweight in U.S. equities. Directionally, Japan's underweight is slightly reduced for a second month (albeit by only 13 basis points).
For the month of June, the model performed in line with both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of July, the model is increasing its risk exposure.