Japan
Highlights Investors should use the following dynamic for tactical asset allocation: 1. Sum the 10-year yields on the T-bond, German bund, and JGB. 2. When the sum is near 4 percent, it is prudent to de-risk portfolios and sit aside, at least for a while. It is a good level to buy a mixed…
The BoJ’s Next Move
The…
Highlights Every diversified currency portfolio should hold the yen as insurance against rising market volatility. However, for tactical investors, the latest dovish shift by global central banks almost guarantees the Bank of Japan will err on the side of stronger stimulus (explicitly or…
Highlights Global growth is still slowing. Having rallied since the start of the year, global stocks will likely enter a “dead zone” over the next six-to-eight weeks as investors nervously await the proverbial green shoots to sprout. We think they will appear in the second quarter, setting the…
Highlights Global growth is still slowing. Having rallied since the start of the year, global stocks will likely enter a “dead zone” over the next six-to-eight weeks as investors nervously await the proverbial green shoots to sprout. We think they will appear in the second quarter,…
Decomposing Treasury-Bund & Treasury-JGB Spreads…
Bond Yields Are In Winter Hibernation…
Highlights Low Bond Volatility: Weakening non-U.S. growth and a more dovish Fed have crushed global government bond volatility, especially in Europe and Japan where yields are struggling to stay above 0%. Treasury-Bund and Treasury-JGB spreads, which now largely reflect long-run real growth…
Highlights It may seem self-evident that most governments are overly indebted, but both theory and evidence suggest otherwise. Higher debt today does not require higher taxes tomorrow if the growth rate of the economy exceeds the interest rate on government bonds. Not only is that currently the…
Highlights Global Growth: Early leading indicators (credit impulses, our global LEI diffusion index) are signaling that the worst of the global economic downturn should soon end. Okun’s Law: In the developed economies, the observed relationships between economic growth and changes in…