Japan

While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.

This week, we look at the latest data releases in the G10, along with implications for all the major currencies.

In this, our final report of a tumultuous year, we summarize our policy outlook for the “Big 4” central banks – the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England (BoE) and the BoJ – and the associated bond market implications for 2023.

In this report, we argue that the dollar will enter a volatile trading range, before a bear market begins in earnest. That said, fundamental forces are aligning for US dollar downside.

In this report, we discuss our most important investment themes for global fixed income markets in 2023, and present our main investment recommendations based on those themes. Our broad conclusion: an environment of slowing global inflation, much weaker global growth and less hawkish central banks will be positive for global government bond returns, but problematic for growth-focused spread products like corporate bonds.

In this <i>Strategy Outlook</i>, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.