Japan

The June Tokyo CPI came in hotter than consensus, pointing to rising price pressures and further policy tightening. The headline index rose to 1.7% y/y from 1.4%. Core measures were also hot, with CPI ex-fresh food rising to 1.6% from 1.3%, and “core core”…

2 months ago

Japan Inflation Monetary Policy

FICC

Fade The Dollar, Watch The Yen

The dollar has had a strong run but its key supports from Fed repricing, positioning, and terms of trade are starting to fade. We close our tactical long USD positions and turn to short USD/JPY, where intervention risk makes yen shorts look increasingly dangerous.

2 months ago

Currencies Japanese Yen US Dollar

Essentials

Japan: Exports Can’t Do It Alone

Japan’s export outlook remains favorable, but domestic weakness warrants tactical caution on equities. A sharp decline in the real effective exchange rate and continued growth in AI infrastructure spending are supporting exports. Japan’s share of exports to…

2 months ago

Japan Japanese Yen

Equities

Japan, El Niño Hedges, And US Consumer Resilience

In this screener report, we explore opportunities in Japanese Non-TMT equities, El Niño hedges, and US consumer-facing equities.

2 months ago

Equity Analyzer Equities Commodities

Essentials

The BoJ Remains Underpriced

The Bank of Japan raised rates to their highest since 1995, but market pricing still understates the tightening path. The BoJ hiked 25 bps to 1%, as expected, in a 7-1 decision. This marks another step in Japan’s exit from its structurally deflationary…

2 months ago

Japan Monetary Policy

Essentials

Japan’s Quiet Resilience

Japan’s May Eco Watchers Survey beat estimates, pointing to resilient growth despite the Middle East conflict. Both the current conditions and outlook indexes rose more than expected, to 43.6 from 40.8 and to 40.7 from 39.4, respectively. Both had plunged in…

3 months ago

Japan Economy Monetary Policy

FICC

Buying Time: Yen Intervention Will Struggle To Turn The Tide

MoF FX intervention has drawn a line at 160, triggering a sharp yen squeeze. But with near-term fundamentals still stacked against the currency, USD/JPY remains poised to retest the highs before any durable turn.

4 months ago

Currencies Japanese Yen Japan

Essentials

JPY: Capped At 160?

Japan’s likely intervention reinforces 160 in USD/JPY as a near-term ceiling, but it does not change the broader macro backdrop. Estimates suggest Japan intervened overnight with around $35 billion. The move reinforces the 160 level in USD/JPY as a clear line…

4 months ago

Japan Japanese Yen

Essentials

BoJ: A Hawkish Hold

The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75%, but the meeting still leaned hawkish. The hold was expected, but had a hawkish tone with 3 dissents in favor of a hike. That signal came alongside upward revisions to the BoJ’s inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and…

4 months ago

Japan Monetary Policy Inflation

FICC

The Stage Is Set For Further BoJ Hikes

The BoJ held rates overnight, but the direction of travel hasn’t changed. We discuss how stronger wages, rising inflation, and a weak yen point to further tightening ahead.

4 months ago

Bonds Japan Monetary Policy

Japan

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