Japan
In this screener report, we explore opportunities in Japanese Non-TMT equities, El Niño hedges, and US consumer-facing equities.
The Bank of Japan raised rates to their highest since 1995, but market pricing still understates the tightening path. The BoJ hiked 25 bps to 1%, as expected, in a 7-1 decision. This marks another step in Japan’s exit from its structurally deflationary…
Japan’s May Eco Watchers Survey beat estimates, pointing to resilient growth despite the Middle East conflict. Both the current conditions and outlook indexes rose more than expected, to 43.6 from 40.8 and to 40.7 from 39.4, respectively. Both had plunged in…
MoF FX intervention has drawn a line at 160, triggering a sharp yen squeeze. But with near-term fundamentals still stacked against the currency, USD/JPY remains poised to retest the highs before any durable turn.
Japan’s likely intervention reinforces 160 in USD/JPY as a near-term ceiling, but it does not change the broader macro backdrop. Estimates suggest Japan intervened overnight with around $35 billion. The move reinforces the 160 level in USD/JPY as a clear line…
The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75%, but the meeting still leaned hawkish. The hold was expected, but had a hawkish tone with 3 dissents in favor of a hike. That signal came alongside upward revisions to the BoJ’s inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and…
The BoJ held rates overnight, but the direction of travel hasn’t changed. We discuss how stronger wages, rising inflation, and a weak yen point to further tightening ahead.
Volatility is high, but the path for yields is clearer than it looks. Across three oil scenarios, we show how policy responses shape fixed income markets and why the balance of risks still points to lower yields.
Japan’s March Eco Watchers Survey missed estimates, interrupting the improvement in momentum seen since last April. The current conditions index fell to 42.2 from 48.9, while respondents’ outlook plunged to 38.7 from 50. Improving momentum had been supported…
Japanese February inflation came in cooler than expected, but leading indicators still point to higher inflation ahead. Headline inflation ticked down to 1.3% y/y from 1.5%. Core measures also missed estimates, with ex. fresh food falling to 1.6% from 2.0%,…