Italy

If the U.K. ultimately exits the EU, it will be a major break in the 70 years of European integration. Multipolarity will be reinforced, increasing global geopolitical risk. We expect global risk assets to start taking cues from Europe, not the Fed and China. However, risks of N-Exit - that other EU member states follow suit - may be overstated.

Highlight Even alarmists like us have been surprised by the referendum outcome; The referendum is a major break in the 70 years of European integration; It will reinforce multipolarity and increase global geopolitical risk; The U.K., however, is an outlier in terms of Euroskepticism; No…

A Spanish bull, a euro bull, and an equity bear.

The latest conclusions from the sector-based (right) way to pick stock markets. Plus some important conclusions for credit markets.

The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in Europe, but we maintain our positive structural view and note that the migration crisis is slackening. Rather, the greatest risks of populism continue to flourish in the Anglo-Saxon world with Brexit and Trump.

For the month of April, the model's performance was in line with the S&P 500, but lagged global equities. For May, the model is aggressively paring back its equity risk exposure. Both Europe and Emerging Markets were downgraded, but still possess the lion's share of the equity allocation, while defensive markets such as the U.S. and Switzerland received a boost. In the fixed-income space, U.S., Italian and Spanish paper were the model's favorites.

How big a problem are the non-performing loans in Italy and Greece? And what is the solution?

This <i>Special Report</i> reviews all of our active recommendations, including our over/underweight country and asset allocation positions, as well as our current tactical trades.

For the month of February, the model underperformed both global and U.S. equities. For March, the model has modestly pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into bonds. While Europe remains the largest equity overweight, EM and Canada also received some allocation. The U.S. and New Zealand were slightly downgraded. In the fixed-income space, the model is sticking with Italy and Spain.

Reduce portfolio duration to neutral, while also cutting exposure to European bonds (both in the core and Periphery) and Canadian government bonds.