Europe’s domestic economy continues to surprise to the upside, can small-cap stocks do the same?
Heading into a black hole, you pass a point of no return known as the ‘event horizon’ after which your impending oblivion is sealed. US recessions also have an event horizon, which we are fast approaching. We reveal a leading…
In EM ex-China, growth will continue decelerating. Some economies will experience an outright recession, while most will have a growth recession. Nearly every single economy will experience a cyclical drop in inflation (with the…
The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus:…
Why will Chinese consumer spending recover but not its industrial sectors? Will China's reopening boost the global business cycle and inflation? How fast will US core inflation fall and what are the implications for corporate profits…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out next year and beyond.