Inflation/Deflation

Stocks perform worse in presidential election years than average years, especially in the first half of the year, and especially if the ruling party ends up falling from power. Investors should take risk off the table until the unemployment rate peaks.

Carbon credits as an asset class are becoming increasingly investable. Given that the structural bull case for this asset class is compelling, strategic investors should long carbon credits. However tactical investors should book profits or consider merits of a short position, since prices are likely to correct over the next 12-24 months.