Inflation/Deflation
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service European inflation is likely to remain stubborn through the remainder of the decade, since the working-age population’s decline will keep the labor market tight. European rates have…
Google searches for “inflation” by US users have been on a general downward trend over the past year. This is in line with developments in realized inflation as annual core CPI inflation peaked last September. Similarly, market- and survey-based measures of…
While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global economy begins to sink into recession.
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, lower valuation readings in Chinese equities are justified by fundamentals. In absolute terms, valuations of both A-shares and investable stocks are approaching previous lows. However, there…
The US CPI release showed monthly inflation accelerated in August. While the increase in headline inflation from 0.2% m/m to 0.6% m/m was in line with consensus estimates, the core index’s 0.3% m/m rise came in slightly above expectations it would remain…
The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS.
The latest UK labor market developments complicate the Bank of England’s task when it meets next week. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3% in the three months to July as employment fell by 207 thousand. Similarly, payrolled employees…
US small business optimism deteriorated for the first time in four months in August. The NFIB index declined by 0.6 point to 91.3, falling slightly below expectations of 91.5. In particular, current conditions deteriorated slightly: the share of owners…
Our colleagues at BCA’s US Investment Strategy service have been excess savings bulls since cash began silting up on household balance sheets as transfer payments flowed from the Capitol to Main Street while High Street businesses were shuttered. Excess…
The New York Fed’s latest consumer expectations survey shows household sentiment deteriorated in August. Job loss expectations jumped, with the average perceived likelihood of losing one’s job over the coming year increasing by 2.0 percentage points to a…