Inflation/Deflation
US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy succumbs to recession. Investors should increasingly favor bonds over stocks.
Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.
Fading Corporate Pricing Power…
FOMC Minutes: Most Still See Upside Risks To Inflation…
Hotter-Than-Anticipated US PPI…
NY Fed: Near-Term Consumer Inflation Expectations Inch Higher…
US Small Business Sentiment Deteriorates Again In September…
Blowout US Job Gains…
Easing UK Labor Market Will Alleviate Wage Pressures…
EU CBAM’s Inflationary Impacts…