Inflation/Deflation
German Business Sentiment Inches Up In October…
China's Property Market Adjustment Is Not Over…
US Bonds: Short-Term Risks, Long-Term Value…
Eurozone Sentiment: A Self-Defeating Upswing…
The biggest banks report that consumer credit card delinquencies still have yet to get back to pre-COVID levels and other credit performance indicators, leading and lagging, remain solid. There is still a great deal of cash sloshing around the banking system, though consumption has clearly slowed. We reiterate our view that a recession is coming, but not before the year is out.
New Record Decline In German Producer Prices…
A Phase Transition Is Coming…
Proceeding Carefully…
Recession Indicators Are Still Sending A Warning…
Keep a Neutral Global Duration Stance…