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Inflation/Deflation

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FICC
Month-In-Review: If A Recession Is Averted For Now, Then Short The Dollar

In this report, we go around the globe and survey the near-term outlook for G10 currencies. Our longer-term view on the dollar has been clear, we are sellers. In this report, we review if a tactical sell is also warranted given incoming data and the message from our models.

Chester Ntonifor
2 years ago
Essentials
Deflationary Pressures Still Dominate China's Economy
China's CPI and PPI inflation release for October indicates that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy. After remaining unchanged in September, consumer prices declined by 0.2% y/y last month, falling below consensus estimates of a…
2 years ago
Essentials
If You Buy Just One Bond, Buy The German Bund
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ECB is the central bank that poses the lowest risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s and letting inflation expectations unanchor. One reason is the ECB’s inherited Germanic anti-inflation DNA. Even in…
2 years ago
Essentials
Supply- And Demand-Driven Inflation: Elevated But Easing
The US disinflationary trend remains intact. The core PCE deflator continued its downtrend in September, falling to 3.7% y/y from a peak of 5.6% in February 2022. Alternative measures of underlying price pressures such as the trimmed mean and median PCE…
2 years ago
Essentials
On The Mixed Signals From Chinese Trade Data
Chinese trade data for October delivered a mixed message on Tuesday. On the one hand, the export contraction deepened to -6.4% y/y following -6.2% y/y in September and surprised expectations that it would moderate to -3.5% y/y. Yet on the other hand, import…
2 years ago
Essentials
A Dovish RBA Rate Hike
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to a 12-year high of 4.35% on Tuesday, in line with consensus expectations. Governor Michele Bullock's post meeting statement underscored that although inflation is moderating, it remains too high…
2 years ago
Essentials
US SLOOS: Lending Conditions Tighten Further In Q3
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) reveals that US banks continued to tighten lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), residential real estate (RRE) except government residential…
2 years ago
Essentials
The Eurozone's Disinflationary Impulse Is Broadening
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields will fall toward 2% as market-based inflation expectations dip. For now, the deceleration in Eurozone core CPI can be attributed to the effect of the pass-through of energy prices…
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
Europe’s Disinflation Continues

The Eurozone’s inflation will continue to slow over the coming months. While this trend will help Bund prices, will it boost the appeal of European equities?

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
Open Questions

We consider several uncertainties in this week’s report, from the interest rate outlook to the source of the mountain of cash households have amassed since the pandemic began. We have not adjusted our tactical asset-allocation recommendations but will do so soon to align with the defensive cast of our cyclical recommendations.

Doug Peta
2 years ago

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