Inflation/Deflation
Aside from the 1.0% m/m jump in personal income – which beat expectations of a 0.4% m/m rise – the US January Personal Income and Outlays report was broadly in line with consensus estimates. Nominal personal spending growth decelerated from 0.7% m/m to 0.2%…
New Zealand government bonds rallied, and the NZD was the worst performing major currency on Wednesday following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy announcement. Although the central bank’s decision to keep its official cash rate (OCR) unchanged…
Earlier this year it looked like the spread between the rate of 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was heading toward positive territory. Yet the 2s/10s spread peaked at -16 bps on January 16 and the inversion has been deepening since. This peak in the yield…
The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period. To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics than…
The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were seen as broadly balanced or at least…
Clients have been pushing back on our recession call on the grounds that it is incompatible with the economy’s second-half acceleration and the more recent easing in financial conditions. We examine both of those points in the course of doing some pushing back of our own.
Canada’s January CPI release shows price pressures cooling last month. Headline CPI eased to 2.9%y/y from 3.4%y/y in December, below expectations of 3.3%y/y. Furthermore, month-over-month inflation fell for the first time since May 2020. Headline CPI has…
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting underscore that policymakers are adopting a cautious approach in timing the pivot to policy easing. Although Fed officials acknowledged that inflation and employment risks are “moving into better balance,” and that…
Chinese equities are extending their gains following the end of the Lunar New Year holiday. Onshore stocks have gained 9.0% since February 5, outperforming the global benchmark by 7.5 percentage points over this period. Similarly, the MSCI Investable index –…