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Inflation/Deflation

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

GAI is a powerful force that will revolutionize the global economy and we are sold on this long-term investment theme. To partake in the upward momentum, we recommend a nuanced approach. The GAI infrastructure cohort is now overbought - there should be a better entry point. The models and applications companies and early adopters are less of a crowded trade and offer more opportunities.

The latest batch of economic data out of the UK suggests that economic conditions have recently stabilized. The flash Manufacturing PMI rose by a stronger-than-anticipated 2.4 points to a 20-month high of 49.9 in March – only a hair below the 50 boom-bust…
Both supply- and demand-side forces contributed to the inflation surge in 2021/2022. According to the San Francisco Fed’s estimates, the contribution of demand-side forces to annual core PCE inflation jumped from -0.09 percentage points (pp) in February 2021…

Does the recent surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank augur other dovish surprises among major central banks in Europe?

Image The Chinese yuan slide sharply against the US dollar on Friday, breaching the 7.2 level. The weakness comes after the PBOC loosened its hold on the currency by setting a weaker-than-anticipated daily fixing. The…
The Swiss National Bank’s 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday came as a dovish surprise to market participants anticipating it would hold the policy rate unchanged. The rate cut, which brought the policy rate down to 1.5% makes the SNB the first among its G10…

The US Presidential election is eight months away. In this report, we will be looking at what is left of President Biden’s political capital and his room for actions in the next few months which may include market-negative actions such as the recently announced investigation into Apple.

The UK CPI report showed inflation eased by more than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation dropped from 4.0% y/y to 3.4% y/y – below consensus estimates of 3.5% y/y and the weakest increase since September 2021. Similarly, the slowdown in core…
There were no meaningful adjustments to the Fed’s communication on Wednesday. The post meeting statement was essentially unchanged with Chair Jay Powell noting that the risks to achieving the Fed’s goals are coming into better balance. Powell did…