Inflation/Deflation
The recent rise in market-based inflation expectations has caught the attention of market participants. Some investors have begun to worry that the Federal Reserve might be losing control of its inflation mandate by cutting rates sooner than it should. But…
Our reaction to this morning’s employment report and bond market moves.
It is too early for the RBA to begin cutting rates. Inflation remains above target, with core CPI currently standing at 3.4%, one of the highest numbers amongst major economies. The labor market is also fundamentally strong. Australia’s unemployment rate…
Colombia: Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Public Finances, And Political Uncertainty Warrant Underweight
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service argues that Colombia has fallen from grace in terms of its healthy macroeconomic fundamentals, business-friendly government policies, and conservative fiscal stances. Since the election of President Gustavo…
Climbing US bond yields, alongside higher oil prices, might spoil the party for global risk assets. There are budding cracks in EM domestic bonds, and even though we like this asset class in the long run, investors exposed to it should reduce their positions for now.
Flash estimates for Euro Area inflation in March surprised to the downside. Headline inflation slowed from 2.6% to 2.4% versus expectations of 2.5% and core inflation eased from 3.1% to 2.9% versus expectations of 3%. While the stickiness of services…
The US manufacturing sector appears to be enjoying a revival. As we highlighted yesterday, the ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to growth in March and the S&P Global US manufacturing PMI remains in expansion territory. Yet, service sector…
The number of job openings in the US in February (8.76 million) was little changed from the downwardly revised 8.75 million in January, keeping the job openings rate stable at 5.3%. Similarly, the hiring rate was little changed at 3.7% in February, from 3.6%…
The Dallas Fed released its trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for February on Friday. The trimmed mean PCE is a measure of underlying inflation which excludes the top 31% and the bottom 25% of the PCE basket and then uses a weighted average of the remaining…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.