In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.
EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?
We look beneath headline data to assess the state of the labor market in cyclical goods-producing industries that have previously led overall nonfarm payrolls and in the services segments that have recently been leading the charge.…
Chinese trade and credit data delivered a negative surprise for March. On the trade front, the 7.5% y/y drop in exports came in below expectations of a 1.9% y/y decline following four consecutive months of growth. While the jump…
Contrary to conventional wisdom, most leading indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening, including our very own “Mel rule.” After being overweight stocks last year, we moved to neutral at the start of 2024, and are now…
At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond…
As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In its statement, the ECB reiterated that most measures of underlying inflation were easing, wage growth was moderating, and firms were…
Thursday’s US Produce Price Index report for March shows headline PPI came in below expectations on both a month-over-month (0.2%) and annual (2.1%) basis. Meanwhile, PPI ex food and energy came in at 0.2% m/m (in line with…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, rising inflation benefits Utilities, Energy, and Materials, and is a headwind for the Consumer Discretionary sector. After a protracted bout of underperformance,…
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 5% on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In his opening remarks following the announcement, Governor Tiff Macklem was cautiously dovish: “We don't want to leave…