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Inflation/Deflation

China's Q2 Economic Growth Disappoints
China's real GDP growth decelerated to 4.7% y/y in Q2, down from 5.3% in Q1 and below the consensus forecast of 5.1%. Domestic demand weakened, with retail sales growth sliding to 2% y/y in June, down from 3.7% in the previous month. Our China Strategists…
Daily Insights
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How Far Will European Earnings Fall?

The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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US Election: Don’t Overrate Personalities

The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Inflation Continues To Decelerate
The disinflationary trend in US CPI continued in June as headline CPI dipped to 3% year-over-year, down from 3.3% in May, and core CPI declined by a tick to 3.3%. On a month-over-month basis, headline prices fell by 0.1% and core prices rose by 0.1%. One…
Daily Insights
What Does The Macro Environment Look Like Ahead Of A Recession?
An investor looking at the low unemployment rate and elevated job vacancy rate could reasonably conclude that the US expansion will continue. However history suggests that recessions often start seemingly out of the blue. Solid growth in the fourth quarter…
Daily Insights
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It's Time To Cut

In light of last week’s employment report and this morning’s CPI, it’s time for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
China Faces Daunting Challenges
As highlighted in Wednesday’s edition of BCA Live & Unfiltered, the Chinese economy and its financial markets face several daunting challenges. Its demographic outlook is unfavorable, with a low birthrate stifling population growth; the grim math of…
Daily Insights
US Disinflation Should Continue
US Core CPI inflation has decelerated considerably from its year-over-year peak of 6.6% in September 2022 to 3.4% in May and the consensus expects it remained at 3.4% in June. The year-over-year number has come down continuously, albeit fitfully, over the…
Daily Insights
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The Outlook For Inflation

We consider the outlook for CPI inflation over the next 12 months. Our baseline forecast calls for core CPI to hit 2.40% during this timeframe and for headline CPI to fall between 1.74% and 2.49%.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Macron’s Gambit Paid Off (Sort Of)

At first glance, France has moved to the far left. However, this coalition is fragile, and Macron’s allies still hold the balance of power. What are the assets that will benefit from this new political setup, and those that will not?

European Investment Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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