Inflation/Deflation
Headline and core CPI eased for the fourth consecutive month in July, ticking down 0.1 ppt to 2.9% and 3.2% y/y, respectively. The 3-month and 6-month moving averages continued to edge lower as a result, with the former now reaching a three-and-half-year low…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly embarked on an easing pivot in August, cutting the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 5.25%. The central bank also signaled further rate cuts by lowering its rate benchmark forecast to 4.92% by December 2024 and 3.85%…
Goods prices have normalized following the pandemic binge on goods spending and have contributed to easing price pressures overall. A large drop in vehicle prices largely drove the decrease in July’s CPI and we have questioned the sustainability of an…
US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measure remained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fell 0.2% m/m. Our US Bond strategists have…
The RBA kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August, in line with expectations. However, it lifted its trimmed-mean inflation forecast to 3.5% y/y in Q4 2024 and to 2.9% by Q4 2025 (up from 3.4% and 2.8% in its May forecast, respectively). Inflation…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.
The Australian CPI release for Q2 came in broadly within expectations. Headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.8%y/y from 3.6%y/y the previous quarter. Some of the narrower measures of inflation — trimmed-mean and weighted median CPI — came in below market…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, while the market action of the past few weeks is pointing to a return to a negative stock-bond correlation, more prints will be needed to confirm things are getting back to normal. The post-COVID…
The Bank of England (BoE) lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5% at its meeting on Thursday. While the move was expected, the governing board was split, voting 5 – 4 in favor of reducing the key interest rate. The BoE cut its policy rate despite…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.